Ten Things You Should Know About 2015’s Economy (Metro DC edition)
The following 10 Points are from a presentation given to the Military Officers Association of America (MOAA) Business and Networking Group (BANG). Lots of details — so if you have several hours I would be glad to discuss. These are my talking points — will see about expanding upon the talking points in writing within the weeks ahead.
#1 — Jobs are back. Job growth is expected to be strong through 2020. 800,000 new jobs.
#2 — Gov jobs have dropped for three years in a row. Going Fed just isn’t happening.
#3 — Most new jobs created by 2020: Service Industry, Healthcare, Education. Defense? Meh!
#4 – Income will be stagnant or drop. Want a payraise? Quit your company. Go elsewhere.
#5 – Sequestration is back! … in 2016. We could make it go away but no one wants to pay taxes.
#6 – Defense Industry paychecks continue to be ‘interesting’. New pay schemes floating about.
#7 – Winning Defense skillsets: UAVs, Special Operations, Cloud and Big Data, GEOINT.
#8 – ISR Analytics: The future is 1999 – COTS technology with multi-INT decision tools wanted!
#9 – Stagnant DoD skillsets: single-INT specialists, warfighter logisticians, maneuver warfare.
#10 – KITCHEN SINK THOUGHTS: Commercial Industry can do more with less, much less. Methods of recruiting continue to evolve: there is no clear approach to recruiting talent. Employers know what they don’t like but are unable to explain what they really want – most really don’t know … or take the time to think about it. We will continue to hear yada, yada, yada about talent shortages even as employers do little or nothing to grow talent. Employers want Einsteins walking through their door that will work for not more than Homer Simpson earns … if he earned a paycheck (while managing the nuclear reactor).
#11 — BONUS Thoughts: Median incomes around Metro Washington DC could drop $10-20,000 from today’s $90-100K by 2020. If you alter your view of the future you will have a good future … because you will have adapted and prepared. 2016 could be another bumpy economic year (Metro DC) as Sequestration rocks the defense world again. Much of Metro DC will have happily moved solidly toward ‘what comes next’ by 2016 by planning for smaller homes, better connected neighborhoods, higher density urban planning, and a realignment of commercial industry as it begins accommodating a younger (30s and 40s) workforce that eschews meetings, driving to work five days a week, and is more oriented to matrixed provision of labor services. The defense industry will struggle but evolve (profitably) as Cold Warriors continue to filter out of the system and Robert McNamara types reappear.